Forex: how many traders really remain in the plus

• 72.2% in the red in 2025
• 27.8% in profit in 2025
• ~1% consistently profitable
• >90% lose in 5 years

The figure of 90-95% of Forex traders losing money is floating around the internet. Where did it come from? Who calculated it? And what is the real percentage of successful traders — those who really make a living from trading in the currency market? In this article — without marketing tricks and horror stories — we analyze broker statistics, financial regulator data, and scientific research.

Main figure for 2025 and trend

The Polish regulator KNF (Financial Supervision Commission) published fresh statistics for 2025 based on data from local brokers. According to the report, 72.2 percent of active clients on the Forex market ended the year with a loss, and 27.8 percent with a profit. This is a ratio of almost 3 to 1. However, "being in the plus for the year" and "consistently earning a living" are two different things.

The average profit of successful traders in 2025 was about 7,200 zlotys, and the average loss was about 5,200 zlotys. At the same time, the total loss of all clients was almost four times greater than the total profit. Interestingly, the total number of unprofitable clients increased from 174,000 to 267,000, and the proportion of unprofitable ones increased from 70.6 percent in 2024 to 72.2 percent. The trend is not in favor of traders.

• 82% lose when 60% of trades are successful
• 65% have >50% of trades in the plus
• 3.8% lose annually
• 1.2% / 2.8% profit / loss

Paradox: most profitable trades do not save the deposit

A study involving 25,000 retail traders and more than 4 million trades revealed a shocking fact. About 65 percent of traders made more profitable trades than losing ones. However, 82 percent of traders ended up with a loss. How is this possible?

The answer lies in the ratio of profit and loss. The average profit per trade was about 1.2 percent, and the average loss was about 2.8 percent. Even with 60 percent of successful trades, the mathematical expectation remains negative because the losses are larger. Traders systematically close profitable positions too early, fearing they will lose them, and hold losing positions in the hope of a bounce. This is a behavioral trap.

A study in the Journal of Finance confirms that active retail traders lose an average of about 3.8 percent per year relative to the market, and the main reason is not a lack of knowledge, but psychology and the size of losses.

Successful traders are 1% or 28%?

It all depends on how you count. If you take the annual broker report (as in Poland) — about 27-28 percent of clients end the year in the plus. But this does not mean that they consistently earn a living. Some were in the red for most of the year and recovered in the last month, and some trade with high risk and can lose everything once.

According to data on intraday traders on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (a 15-year study), about 13 percent of traders achieved annual profits. But only 2 percent of these 13 percent (that is, about 0.26 percent of the total) were able to consistently earn a living for many years.

The long-term statistics for day traders are as follows: 80 percent give up trading in the first two years. After three years, only 13 percent remain. After five years, only 7 percent. And only 1.6 percent of all who have ever tried remain consistently profitable day traders. These figures are close to the truth: consistently profitable traders are about 1-3 percent.

• 80% leave in 2 years
• 13% remain after 3 years
• 7% remain after 5 years
• 1.6% consistently profitable

Why there are so few consistently profitable traders

The conclusions of studies and real practice coincide in several fundamental reasons explaining why 98-99 percent of retail traders never achieve consistent profit.

First reason — poor risk/reward ratio. Retail traders often enter trades with the expectation of a small profit, but risk too much. Profitable trades are closed quickly, and losing trades "hang" and accumulate losses. This is called "cutting profit, leaving loss." Professionals do the opposite.

Second reason — lack of systematic risk management. Many traders do not use stop-loss orders or set them too far. Losses on one trade can offset the profit from ten previous ones. Even with an excellent strategy, one large loss can destroy a month's work.

Third reason — emotions and psychology. Fear and greed cause traders to break their own rules. Traders increase their volumes after a series of losses, trying to get even, which is the surest way to lose the deposit. Or, conversely, they are afraid to increase profitable positions.

Fourth reason — insufficient capital. Beginners often trade with minimal deposits of 100-500 dollars, using high leverage. This is not trading, but a lottery. Professional trading requires capital that allows you to withstand standard drawdowns without emotions.

Fifth reason — the myth of "easy money." Most come to the Forex for quick profits, but trading is a business that requires long-term learning, discipline, and risk management. Those who treat it as a business, not as a casino, have a chance to join the small group of successful ones.

Where did the myth of 90% come from

This figure was first mentioned by a Chinese regulator in 2008: "80% to 90% of forex traders lose money." Later, thousands of blogs picked it up and spread it, turning it into an immutable truth. However, this is an average estimate that does not take into account experience, strategies, and the duration of trading.

A more academic study in the Financial Analysts Journal showed that about 20 percent of intraday traders achieved measurable profits. However, profit and stable profit are different concepts. Overall, it can be said that 70-80 percent of active traders lose in a specific year, but only 1-3 percent are able to consistently earn a long time.

What does this mean for you

If you are just starting out, the statistics should not scare you, but it should sober you. Trading is not a way to get rich quick. It is a complex profession that requires training, discipline, psychological resilience, and, most importantly, sufficient capital.

Those who join the ranks of consistently profitable traders usually spend from three to seven years studying the market and honing their skills. They keep trading diaries, analyze mistakes, use strict stop-loss orders, and do not risk more than 1-2 percent of the deposit on a trade. They treat trading as a business, not as a gambling game.

If you are ready for this path, there is a chance. But if you are looking for easy money, the statistics say that the likelihood of success is close to zero. The industry is full of warnings: 70-90 percent of customers lose money. These numbers are not magic, but the result of human psychology and market laws.

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